A Passage to an Unknown Sea November 1520

You are an officer advising Ferdinand Magellan, commander of a Spanish fleet searching for a western sea route to the Spice Islands.

After months of searching along the coast of South America, the fleet has found a winding strait leading west. Supplies are running low, and Magellan has asked his officers for their opinions on whether to continue.

Known information

The fleet left Spain in 1519 with five ships; one has been wrecked and a mutiny has already been put down.
The ocean beyond the strait has not been charted, and no one knows how wide it is.
The Portuguese pilot Estêvão Gomes argues the fleet should return to Spain to report the discovery and come back properly supplied.
Returning now would leave the expedition’s main goal, reaching the Spice Islands, unfulfilled.

Reveal what happened (spoilers: decide first)

Fact

What actually happened

Magellan rejected the advice to turn back and sailed on. (Sail on across the ocean)

Magellan refused to return. During the passage, the San Antonio, taken over by Gomes, deserted and sailed back to Spain. The remaining three ships entered the Pacific on 28 November 1520 and spent more than three months crossing it before sighting Guam in March 1521; many men died of scurvy and starvation. Magellan was killed in the Philippines in April 1521. In September 1522 the Victoria, commanded by Juan Sebastián Elcano, returned to Spain with 18 survivors, completing the first known circumnavigation of the globe.

Important

Possible consequences · Analysis and speculation, not fact

A return to Spain might have saved many lives, but it is uncertain whether the Spanish crown would have funded a second expedition quickly, given the losses and rivalries already involved.

History does not reveal what would definitely have happened under the other choice. Many factors could have changed the outcome.

Context · Why it was decided this way

Magellan, a Portuguese navigator in Spanish service, had spent years persuading the Spanish crown to fund the voyage, and returning without reaching the Spice Islands would have put his position at risk.

Historians note that Gomes’s case for returning was reasonable on the information available: the fleet had no idea the Pacific was so vast. The voyage cost the lives of most of the roughly 240 or more men who set out.