Berlin Cut Off Late June 1948

You are advising US President Harry S. Truman and General Lucius D. Clay, military governor of the American zone of Germany.

Soviet authorities have halted road, rail and canal traffic into the western sectors of Berlin, a city that lies deep inside the Soviet occupation zone. About two million people in those sectors rely on supplies brought in from outside.

Known information

The blockade began on 24 June 1948, days after the Western powers introduced a new currency in their zones of Germany.
Stocks of food and coal in the western sectors will not last long.
Agreements from 1945 guarantee three air corridors into Berlin; road and rail access has no comparable written guarantee.
Soviet ground forces in Germany greatly outnumber American, British and French forces.
General Clay argues that leaving Berlin would badly damage Western prestige in Germany and across Europe.

Reveal what happened (spoilers: decide first)

Fact

What actually happened

The United States and Britain chose to supply West Berlin by air. (Supply the city by air)

The US airlift, Operation Vittles, began on 26 June 1948, and Britain’s Operation Plainfare followed two days later. The airlift expanded until, at its height, a plane was landing at Tempelhof Airport roughly every 45 seconds. The Soviet Union lifted the blockade on 12 May 1949.

Important

Possible consequences · Analysis and speculation, not fact

Some analysts think an armed convoy would have been allowed through, while others believe it would have been stopped, exposing Western weakness or leading to shooting. A clash on the autobahn could have escalated in ways no one can predict with confidence.

History does not reveal what would definitely have happened under the other choice. Many factors could have changed the outcome.

Context · Why it was decided this way

Clay had considered testing the blockade with an armed convoy, but Washington judged the risk of a direct clash with Soviet troops too high. Because the air corridors were guaranteed in writing, stopping the airlift would have meant firing on unarmed transport aircraft, putting responsibility for any escalation on the Soviet side.

Many officials doubted a city could be supplied by air for long, especially through a winter. The airlift, together with a Western counter-blockade of goods to the Soviet zone, is widely seen as contributing to the Soviet decision to end the blockade. The crisis also formed part of the background to the founding of NATO in April 1949.