Missiles in Cuba 16–22 October 1962

You are advising US President John F. Kennedy.

Reconnaissance photographs taken by a U-2 spy plane over western Cuba show Soviet ballistic missile sites under construction. The President has gathered a small group of senior advisers and wants a recommendation before the sites are ready to fire.

Known information

Photographs taken on 14 October show launch sites for missiles that could reach much of the continental United States.
Analysts expect some sites could become operational within days or weeks.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff favour air strikes on the sites, possibly followed by an invasion of Cuba.
Military planners cannot guarantee that air strikes would destroy every missile.
Soviet troops are stationed in Cuba, and the Soviet Union could respond elsewhere, for example against West Berlin.

Reveal what happened (spoilers: decide first)

Fact

What actually happened

Kennedy chose a naval quarantine and negotiation, while keeping air strike plans ready. (Quarantine and negotiate)

On 22 October 1962 Kennedy announced a naval “quarantine” of Cuba in a televised address. After days of tense negotiation, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev announced on 28 October that the missiles would be dismantled and removed. Privately, the United States also agreed to remove its Jupiter missiles from Turkey, a part of the deal that was kept secret at the time.

Important

Possible consequences · Analysis and speculation, not fact

Many historians argue that air strikes would have carried a serious risk of escalation, particularly if Soviet forces had retaliated in Cuba or in Berlin. Others suggest a limited strike might have forced a Soviet withdrawal just as quickly. Neither outcome can be known.

History does not reveal what would definitely have happened under the other choice. Many factors could have changed the outcome.

Context · Why it was decided this way

Kennedy’s advisers were divided. Military leaders pressed for air strikes followed by an invasion, while others, including Defense Secretary Robert McNamara, argued for a blockade that would leave time for diplomacy. The word “quarantine” was used partly because a blockade is, in international law, an act of war.

Historians still debate how close the world came to nuclear war and how much of the outcome was due to the quarantine itself rather than back-channel diplomacy, such as Robert Kennedy’s meetings with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin. The crisis led to the Washington–Moscow “hotline” and renewed efforts towards a nuclear test ban.